TEHRAN- "Peace with the (Zionist) Jews is in Confrontation, Not in Shaking Hands with Them". This is the title of an article featured on Yemen’s Almaseera website on October 6, just a day before Hamas launched an attack on the southern occupied territories. 

This title serves as a window into Yemen's stance, the ongoing actions of the Ansarullah Movement, and their reaction to Israel’s bloodshed in the Gaza Strip. On October 31, merely three days following Israel's ground offensive in northern Gaza, Yemen directed a barrage of missiles and drones at the southernmost point of the Israeli-occupied territories, specifically targeting Eilat port.
Following this incident, Yemen made a bold announcement, vowing not to permit Israeli and Israeli-bound vessels safe passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea. On November 19, Yemenis reported the seizure of the commercial ship Galaxy Leader, diverting its course towards Yemeni shores, marking the beginning of multiple Yemeni attacks on commercial ships en route to Israeli ports. The international maritime community has been quick to react, with numerous shipping and cargo companies announcing the suspension of transit through the Red Sea due to what they refer to as Ansarullah’s threats.

Why Bab el-Mandeb?

Looking at the world map, the significance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in international maritime transport becomes apparent. Located between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, Bab el-Mandeb stands as one of the most strategic maritime chokepoints worldwide. After the Strait of Hormuz and Malacca, it is the largest and most pivotal route for oil transportation, with over 6 million barrels of oil, about 4% of the world's total oil flow, passing through daily, mainly bound for Europe. Beyond oil, 30% of the world's natural gas trade traverses this passage.

“Yemen that was not initially considered a significant player in regional equations, mainly due to its geographical distance from Israel and Western countries, has proven now to be a serious threat.” Passing through this maritime route significantly shortens the shipping routes for vessels circumventing the African continent to reach the Indian Ocean and countries in East and Southeast Asia. Consequently, it is a highly desirable and cost-effective route for international shipping and maritime transport companies. Experts argue that the passage through Bab el-Mandeb reduces transportation costs by at least 15%. Given these considerations, any threat in this strait poses a severe challenge to shipping companies and, consequently, governments. Increased insurance costs for these shipping companies, coupled with rising oil prices in destination countries and the impact on other commodities in the long term, are undesirable outcomes for any nation.

US-led coalition 

In response to the escalating threats, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin embarked on a visit to Bahrain, a key military ally in the Middle East. During the visit, Austin unveiled plans for a naval coalition in the Red Sea consisting of 10 countries. These countries are expected to jointly patrol the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden to prevent what they call Yemeni attacks on ships. Following this move, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of Yemen's Supreme Political Council, stated, "Except for ships dealing with the Zionist enemy, the Red Sea is secure. We are cooperating with influential countries to break the siege on Gaza and stop the aggression."

Mohammed Abdul-Salam, the spokesman for the Ansarullah Movement, also told Reuters: “Our position will not change in the direction of the Palestinian issue, whether a naval alliance is established or not.”
On the other hand, Israeli media has reported that Saudi Arabia has no intention of joining the American naval coalition in the Red Sea, attributing it to the fear of getting involved in a new regional war. According to Israeli media, Saudi Arabia is seeking a diplomatic solution to end the conflict with Sanaa, and therefore, it has refrained from participating in the American naval coalition in the Red Sea.

Yemeni forces have proven their unpredictability and the potential high risk they pose to their adversaries. In 2019, amid the Yemen-Saudi Arabia conflict, Ansarullah's missile attack on Aramco, Saudi Arabia's largest oil facility, led to a more than 50% reduction in the country's oil output. The attack was considered a “severe blow” by Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, who said he had never felt such a sense of defeat in his life. Similarly, Yemeni missile and drone attacks on Abha Airport in Saudi Arabia resulted in injuries and disruptions to the airport's flights.
Therefore, Yemenis have demonstrated their capability to disrupt global trade, jeopardize the security of hostile nations, and these countries are well aware of the potential risks.

What is Ansarullah's Goal in these attacks?

At first glance, it may seem that Yemen's Ansarullah, as part of the anti-American-Israeli axis in the region and following the lead of resistance forces in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, has made the Red Sea unsafe for vessels destined for Israel. Additionally, Ansarullah intends to use the current situation to showcase its anti-Israeli stance and differentiation from some Arab countries that have openly or implicitly normalized relations with Israel. At a time when the general sentiment in Arab countries resounds with opposition to Israel and its brutalities against Palestinians, Ansarullah's actions in the Red Sea are hailed as a robust response from Arab nations, leading to criticizing their own governments for perceived inaction.

Moreover, Ansarullah can seize this opportunity to demonstrate its influential and powerful role within Yemen as an entity that can challenge major world powers. 

How can Yemeni attacks be halted?

Yemeni forces’ attacks in the Red Sea can pose challenges to the security, economy, and trade of affected countries. This reality has prompted the so-called coalition members to deploy million-dollar vessels to the region. The country that was not initially considered a significant player in regional equations, mainly due to its geographical distance from Israel and Western countries, has proven now to be a serious threat. 
Sanctions are not an effective tool to stop them, as Yemenis have shown resilience against sanctions in the past.

Primarily, the key to halting the attacks lies with Israel. While the Gaza conflict may not escalate the tension in the region significantly, a direct confrontation with Yemenis could ignite a full-fledged war. As mentioned earlier, Yemen has proven to be unpredictable and could pose a serious threat to Israel, whose 85% of trade takes place through the sea.

The second solution is indeed diplomacy. In the current circumstances, it is expected that regional countries, especially those with close ties with Yemen, take a diplomatic approach and act as mediators. Both regional and non-regional countries have so far cautiously dealt with the Gaza conflict, showing reluctance to escalate the conflict and expand its scope and dimension.